OnLocation Knows Energy Modeling: EPA’s OMEGA Model

OnLocation is renowned for our understanding of the EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Much of our federal and private sector work involves the use of NEMS. However, our expertise extends beyond NEMS to other models, including those that would otherwise be considered a subset of a large integrated model such as NEMS.

About EPA’s OMEGA Model

The Environmental Protection Agency’s Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Automobiles (OMEGA) is used to evaluate policies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from light- and medium-duty vehicles. OMEGA is focused on the transportation sector. OnLocation was asked by POET to evaluate alternative scenarios using OMEGA to respond to the EPA’s proposed rulemaking regarding the Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles (EPA EPA-HQ-OAR-2022-0829). The rulemaking is a new regulation that aims to reduce the emissions of new vehicles after MY2027. EPA’s goal is to achieve the reduction of CO₂ emissions by phasing down the allowable emissions between 2027 and 2032 for different vehicle size classes.

Understanding Robustness of EPA’s Rule Using OMEGA

EPA’s rulemaking was supported by a set of scenarios using OMEGA and POET sought to understand how robust the proposed rulemaking would be under different assumptions. The OnLocation team put the OMEGA model through its paces and ran different scenarios focusing on sets of assumptions specified by POET. This included the reduction of battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales, the inclusion of upstream emissions in emissions calculations, and emissions reductions from biofuels.

The findings indicated a propensity for BEV integration into the US light-duty vehicle fleet to be the most important driver in reaching EPA’s emissions targets. Armed with insights from OnLocation’s analysis of results from the OMEGA model, POET was able to glean a clearer perspective on the EPA’s proposal and appropriately frame their comments back to EPA.

Conclusion

OnLocation’s holistic, multi-model approach energy modeling allows us address intricate, complex, questions in the energy sector, ensuring we deploy the optimal tool for garnering pivotal insights. For more information about OnLocation’s integrated energy modeling, visit our website and read our blogs. Answers can also be found to common questions about NEMS, including its capabilities and limitations, the cost of a model run, and the time it takes to perform model scenarios.