Modeling Progress Toward Meeting U.S. Climate Change Goals
The United Nations Paris Agreement of 2015 is a binding treaty among 196 nations to set targets and develop policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). In accordance with this agreement, the Biden Administration submitted the U.S. Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) in December 2024. This report describes the actions taken and progress made toward meeting the U.S. targets of reducing economywide net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50-52 percent below 2005 levels in 2030, as well as achieving net-zero emissions no later than 2050. The BTR is the latest in a series of studies submitted by the United States to the United Nations under the Paris Agreement, and in all of these studies, OnLocation provided important modeling support and analysis.
The BTR uses a multi-model approach to project GHG emissions through the year 2040. One of the models used is OP-NEMS, a customized version of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System that was developed by OnLocation for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Policy (DOE OP). The BTR results of the 2024 “With Measures” Policy Baseline as well as several sensitivity cases are used to illustrate a range of outcomes that reflect the country’s expected progress toward achieving the U.S. GHG targets. The “With Measures” Baseline scenario includes recent actions taken to meet the U.S. targets. These include the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021 (BIL), Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) GHG emissions standards for power plants and for vehicles, updated fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks, and updated DOE efficiency standards for appliances and equipment in residential buildings, along with many other Federal and State measures. The sensitivity cases vary assumptions related to oil and gas resources and drilling costs as well as technology costs and tax credits for clean electricity and electric vehicles.
Source: 2024 U.S. Biennial Transparency Report
The Baseline scenario results show that U.S. net GHG emissions are projected to decline up to 46 percent by 2030 and up to 64 percent by 2040, relative to 2005 levels, if all the current measures are successful. The range of projected emissions represents the results of different modeling approaches as well as the market and technology uncertainties reflected in the sensitivity cases. The current measures are expected to accelerate deployment of clean energy sources such as solar and wind, reduce emissions-intensive fossil fuels, and increase electrification and energy efficiency in transportation and buildings. Sustainable fuels such as biofuels as well as carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in industry and power also contribute to these reductions. In particular, electrification of end-use sectors combined with clean electricity sources, as well as CCS technologies applied to fossil fuel facilities, enables significant decarbonization to offset emissions from hard-to-abate energy sectors such as some industrial processes.
While these model projections come close to meeting the U.S. GHG targets, more needs to be done. The modeling and scenario analysis performed for the BTR provides valuable insights into further measures needed to bridge the gap in meeting our long-term goals. Possible additional measures that could be implemented in all energy sectors to meet or exceed these targets include greater investment and incentives for new clean energy sources such as small modular reactors and enhanced geothermal systems in the power sector, greater adoption of electric vehicles and sustainable fuels in the transportation sector, increased use of smart control systems in buildings, additional research and development in carbon management technologies such as Direct Air Capture, and increased use of measures to lower carbon intensity in cement and other construction materials, just to name a few.
As noted above, in addition to the BTR, OnLocation has supported earlier U.S. reports made pursuant to the Paris treaty. These include “The Long-Term Strategy of The United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050,” submitted in November 2021, and the “United States Mid-Century Strategy For Deep Decarbonization,” submitted in November 2016. Both reports lay out U.S. proposed strategies for meeting the GHG targets agreed to as part of the Paris Agreement. In both studies, OnLocation used customized versions of the NEMS model to illustrate various pathways that could be taken to meet the net zero targets.
The BTR and the prior GHG studies illustrate both the potential and the uncertainty inherent in the energy and environmental future for the United States. OP-NEMS is representative of the modeling and analytical tools OnLocation provides to decision-makers in government and industry to project impacts of energy policies and measures in a quantitative, unbiased framework. OnLocation’s team of experts are highly skilled in customizing and applying models to exploring real-world solutions for climate change and other energy issues.