Multi-Model Study Provides Insights for Deep Decarbonization Options

OnLocation provided modeling and analysis in support of the most recent Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study, EMF 37, a multi-model study analyzing decarbonization in the U.S. EMF is a collaboration involving many energy experts from government agencies, universities, and research institutions that use state-of-the-art modeling tools to study important energy and environmental challenges. Since 1976, EMF has performed multiple studies designed to inform decision-makers of key insights into the issues facing the energy industry, examine potential policy implications, and identify future research needs. EMF also provides opportunities to improve the capabilities of the modeling community through collaboration. OnLocation has participated in several EMF studies over the years.

The EMF 37 study focused on exploring pathways to achieve deep decarbonization including electrification and carbon management technologies. For the analysis, OnLocation used a customized version of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) developed for U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (DOE FECM), called FECM-NEMS.[1] OnLocation and 15 other modeling groups ran a common set of scenarios designed to achieve economy-wide net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in the U.S. with various technology and policy assumptions. The models consisted of a mix of integrated energy system and sector-specific models, and a broad range of model results were shared among the groups using a detailed data template.

EMF 37 Articles and Insights

The results of the EMF 37 multi-model scenario analysis were summarized in several articles published in Energy and Climate Change’s special issue titled “Energy Modeling Forum 37: Deep Decarbonization & High Electrification Scenarios for North America.” OnLocation staff who participated in the study also co-authored several of the articles published in the special issue. OnLocation authors include Francisco de la Chesnaye, Frances Wood, Sharon Showalter, and Amogh Prabhu. These articles are summarized below:

• The EMF 37 Overview Paper[2] was written by the EMF 37 Steering Committee to provide a broad introduction to the scope and purpose of the study and highlights a few key commonalities and differences across the modeling results. There was broad agreement that deep decarbonization requires emission reductions in the electricity sector, coupled with increased electrification in end-use sectors. Most models also employed net negative emission options such as Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and land sinks to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 2050 in the U.S. The level of dependence on each pathway varied across the models.

• Carbon Management Technology Pathways[3] analyzes the results of a subset of modeling groups as part of the EMF 37 Carbon Management Study Group (CMSG). The CMSG designed a set of scenarios to explore the role of carbon management technologies in achieving net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 2050. The subgroup found that most models were not able to achieve this economy-wide goal without some form of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. For those models that could achieve the target, the mitigation cost was substantially more expensive when CCS was constrained. In addition, the projected marginal costs of achieving the emissions target were sensitive to CCS costs including direct air capture. 

• Health and Air Pollutant Emission Impacts[4] considers the secondary benefits of decarbonization pathways on air quality and associated health outcomes. The study results showed a steady decline in non-greenhouse gas pollutant emissions such as fine particulate matter concentrations leading to overall health benefits across scenario results, although emissions from some alternative technologies such as biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture emit some emissions that may reduce these benefits in some regions of the country.

• Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions[5] provides insights into the energy and economic implications of net-zero CO₂ emission policies as well as subsidies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies. For most models, while net-zero policies lower fossil fuel consumption, achieving net-zero emissions does not rely on a complete phase-out of all fossil fuels. Carbon pricing policies and subsidies for carbon removal technologies can have large impacts on the economy, but results from many models suggest that spending on energy may decline relative to today’s levels due to increases in end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

• Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand[6] focuses on the role of the power sector which consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero across model results. The rate of electrification of end-uses and deployment of zero- and low-emitting generation technologies varied considerably across models. Some models showed a significant expansion in wind and solar electricity generation with electricity storage technologies built to support them. Other models showed a significant role for natural gas with carbon capture and storage.

• Bioenergy Pathways[7] summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use toward meeting a net-zero CO₂ emissions target in all energy sectors including electric power, transportation, industry, and buildings energy sectors. Scenario results from 13 EMF modeling teams including FECM-NEMS were examined. All scenarios that achieved net-zero emissions employed bioenergy consumption and carbon dioxide removal (BECCS and/or DACCS) to offset emissions that are difficult or expensive to reduce.

Conclusion

The insights gained from the EMF 37 study and the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results provide decision-makers with important policies and pathways to consider when solving energy and environmental challenges facing our world today. The study also validates the important contributions that models can make to policy debates. NEMS is the leading integrated energy model supporting U.S. policy analysis and projections up to the year 2050. OnLocation’s team of experts is uniquely qualified to meet your analytical needs using NEMS. From creating custom applications to solving complex modeling challenges, we have earned an industry-leading reputation in designing and implementing scenarios that provide valuable analysis and insights into today’s energy markets and policies.

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[1] OnLocation’s participation in the EMF 37 study was funded by DOE FECM.

[2] Browning, Morgan, James McFarland, et al., Net-zero CO₂ by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study, Energy and Climate Change, Volume 4, 2023, 100104, ISSN 2666-2787.

[3] Binsted, Matthew, et al., Carbon Management Technology Pathways for Reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide Net-Zero Emissions Goal, Energy and Climate Change, Volume 5, 2024, 100154, ISSN 2666-2787.

[4] Loughlin, Daniel, et al., Health and Air Pollutant Emission Impacts of Net-Zero CO2 By 2050 Scenarios from the Energy Modeling Forum 37 Study, Energy and Climate Change, Volume 5, 2024, 100165, ISSN 2666-2787.

[5] Bistline, John E.T., et al., Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts, Energy and Climate Change, 2025, 100191, ISSN 2666-2787.

[6] Fripp, Matthias, et al., Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study, Energy and Climate Change, 2025, 100196, ISSN 2666-2787.

[7] Sands, Ronald D., et al., Bioenergy Pathways within United States Net-Zero CO2 Emissions Scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 Study, Energy and Climate Change, 2025,100209, ISSN 2666-2787.